Stocks to buy

With a potential debt ceiling resolution, gold has lost some of its shine. But don’t write off these gold mining stocks with high upside potential just yet. If we’re not already knee-deep in recession, we’re headed for one. Even the New York Federal Reserve says there’s a 68.2% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. “The probability that the country will enter a recession within the next year has risen to 68.2 percent, according to the New York Fed, which is the highest level since 1982,” they noted.

Rising U.S. recession risks can easily prompt further safe-haven gold buying. And we also have to consider that high inflation is still persistent. Plus, even global central banks are racing to buy gold. In fact, in the first quarter, they bought 228t of gold – 34% higher than the previous record set in 2013. That also follows annual demand of 1,078t in 2022. That being said, analysts at UBS believe gold prices could hit $2,100 by year-end; $2,200 by March 2024.

If gold can push back above $2,000, consider these three hot gold mining stocks with high upside potential.

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Source: Shutterstock

Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) is one of the biggest companies in the gold industry. It’s also severely oversold, just under $17 a share. GOLD is also technically oversold on RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R. The last time these indicators became this over-extended, the stock ran from about $15.50 to $20.

Operating mines and projects in 18 countries in North and South America, Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Saudi Arabia, the company’s portfolio spans the world’s most prolific gold districts. The company, which expects to produce about 4.5 million ounces of gold through 2030, carries a 2.35% dividend yield.

Better, according to CEO Mark Bristow, the company is on the hunt for takeovers. He also forecasts a rally in gold and copper. “There’s significant upside risk for the gold price and the copper price” because of tightening supply for both and the shift by central banks to diversify their reserves by holding gold in place of the dollar, he told the Financial Times.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Source: Alexander Limbach / Shutterstock

Next up, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) is attractive. One of the best ways to diversify at less cost is with an ETF, such as the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Not only can you gain access to some of the biggest gold stocks in the world, but you can also do so at less cost.  With an expense ratio of 0.51%, the ETF holds positions in Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM), Barrick Gold, Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV), Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM), Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI), and Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM) to name a few. Even better, shares of mining stocks can often outperform the price of gold.

That’s because higher gold prices can result in increased profit margins and free cash flow for gold miners.  In addition, top gold miners often have limited exposure to riskier mining projects.

Also, according to Capital.com, “Gold miners have traditionally outperformed bullion in bullish markets, due to the way these companies use their operating leverage in order to increase profits, which leads to a boost in share prices. Thus, this is largely due to profit expansion, as miners are able to sell appreciating gold fairly quickly, thus avoiding a decline in prices, whereas their own operational costs rise much more slowly.”

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

Source: Piotr Swat/Shutterstock

Operating mines and projects in nine countries in North and South America, Africa, and Australia, Newmont Corporation’s portfolio spans the world’s top gold districts. Even better, with a dividend yield of 3.93%, Newmont Corporation is another industry’s largest gold company with 96 million ounces of gold reserves.

It’s also too cheap to ignore. At strong support from late last year, NEM is also over-extended on RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R. The last time those indicators became this over-extended at the same time, NEM jumped from about $42.50 to $52.50 in weeks. Even better, Newmont just agreed to buy Newcrest for $17.5 billion. Not only would this be one of the largest-ever gold mining deals, it could cement Newmont’s position as the world’s biggest producer of gold and increase its exposure to copper (about 50 billion pounds).

On the date of publication, Ian Cooper did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Ian Cooper, a contributor to InvestorPlace.com, has been analyzing stocks and options for web-based advisories since 1999.

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