Five years is certainly enough time for emerging companies to go from being in the running for dominance to dominance, as one of the top industry leaders. In fact, the companies listed below could all dominate their respective niche within that five-year time frame. Better, moving from a position of a strong competitor to a market champion should come with appreciating prices.
Industry Leaders: Volkswagen (VWAGY)
Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) doesn’t get the same amount of attention that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), General Motors (NYSE:GM), or Ford (NYSE:F) do. At least, not yet. Right now, Tesla dominates the U.S. EV space, followed by General Motors and Ford. However, Volkswagen could soon surpass Tesla, especially with its battery electric vehicle sales volume. That catalyst alone makes Volkswagen’s over-the-counter shares pretty intriguing for investors. Investors may not pay much attention to VWAGY, but that may change with Volkswagen’s global popularity and commitment to EV technology.
Industry Leaders: Dollar General (DG)
Dollar General (NYSE:DG) fell off the cliff when it released a weaker-than-anticipated outlook for the year and missed earnings for the quarter. Market participants piled on and Dollar General was no longer the inflationary era golden boy it had become. It was suddenly out of favor. However, crisis would soon become opportunity with the stock. In fact, I noted as much following a downgrade of the DG stock. The point here is not to pat myself on the back but rather to note that Dollar General has emerged as a dominant force in discount retailing.
Dollar General has somewhere between 19,000 to 20,000 stores and routinely beats its competitors’ prices by 20% or more. Consumers who care about price over experience will continue to visit and purchase its limited selection of products. Weaker tax refunds affected the retailer recently but overarching trends including price-conscious consumers remain. That means Dollar General should become one of the top industry leaders.
Industry Leaders: Kroger (KR)
Kroger (NYSE:KR) is already a dominant force in the grocery industry. It remains on track to become even bigger as its plan to merge with Albertsons (NYSE:ACI). While that merger has been met with opposition over fears of job losses, price increases, and potential store closures, we saw regulatory scrutiny at the federal level. As a result, Kroger and Albertsons agreed to sell 250 to 300 stores to satisfy antitrust concerns. Nowadays, the deal remains on track to proceed but could result in up to 650 store divestitures. The deal remains on hold but is increasingly likely to pass scrutiny in the mid-term making Kroger the dominant force in the space.
It’s unfair to say that MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) stock will dominate its industry in 5 years because it’s already there. It has carved out a dominant position in Latin American eCommerce that looks unassailable at this point. Just about every signal points to MELI becoming even stronger over the coming years.
One point here before discussing that growing dominance: MercadoLibre is often referred to as the Amazon of Latin America. They both dominate eCommerce in their respective geographies so the tag is apt to a degree. However, Amazon is deeply entrenched in cloud computing with Amazon Web Services (AWS). MercadoLibre’s focus outside of digital commerce is addressing fintech bottlenecks that plague Latin America with Mercado Pago online payments.
MercadoLibre is growing, too. It announced plans to hire 13,000 additional workers a few months ago. Revenues increased by 58.4% during the most recent quarter. That makes it a hypergrowth firm. Payment volume grew by more than 96% reiterating that notion that fintech is integral to the company’s future.
Like MercadoLibre, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG,GOOGL) is already dominant. In fact, it’s dominant in several businesses but I think the most interesting is search. It’s highly unlikely that any competitors are going to unseat Google in that realm anytime soon.
Let’s consider who could beat Google at its own game. Recently, Microsoft received a bit of attention in that regard as it beat Google to punch, releasing AI earlier. OpenAI integration into Microsoft’s Bing search engine was implemented with the goal of gain search market share in mind. I don’t have any concrete, exact figures here but it doesn’t appear to have worked. It appears that Google’s market share in search has only widened between 2022 and 2023. At best, nothing has changed.
Former Google employees couldn’t do it with Neeva.com recently shuttering its business that had aimed to usurp search dominance. Neeva faced insurmountable difficulty in persuading users to switch. We don’t search the Internet for X, instead, we Google it. It’s hard to imagine how that’ll change.
BYD (OTCMKTS:BYDDF) is the other competitor vying for future EV dominance in a battle with Tesla and VW. It clearly has a chance to become the leader in the next 5 years with a home country market in China that has adopted EVs at rapid rates and has a strong appetite for continued growth.
That said, Tesla is still winning at this time. It sold nearly 423k EVs in the first quarter while BYD manages to sell approximately 265k EVs. What’s particularly promising despite the overall difference is the trajectory of BYD’s growth. Its sales increased by 85% YoY while Tesla’s growth lagged behind at 36%.
It is proving difficult to accurately assess which manufacturer will breakout even within the timeframe of a year. VW was supposed to surge ahead soon. That hasn’t happened….yet. It may never happen but the point is that Tesla, VW, and BYD are fighting for global EV market share dominance.
ON Semiconductor (ON)
ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) is in the midst of a meteoric rise that should only continue. Over the past 30 months, the automotive and industrial chipmaker has seen its market capitalization triple. That incredible growth means that Onsemi is now among the 100 biggest firms listed on the Nasdaq.
During that period earnings have grown three times as fast as revenues. The company is well-operated. In any case, ON Semiconductor has a chance to corner an emerging AI automotive chip opportunity and industrial sector chip opportunities.
The company serves a host of growth markets spanning vehicle electrification, sustainable energy grids, IoT, 5G, and cloud infrastructure to name a few. That Onsemi has grown so rapidly over the past 2 years should signal investors of its continued potential. Chips are integral to the digitization of everything and that digitization is not going to slow. That means ON Semiconductor can continue to carve out a dominant position moving forward.
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.